● 过去 24 小时 · 预测市场
预测市场赔率与大额下注
大额下注和赔率急变,往往比新闻更早反映市场对选举、利率和币价的预期。数据来自 Polymarket,题目附中文翻译;我们只记录发生了什么,不判断对错。预测市场入门
大额下注131单笔 $1 万起
下注金额$360万78 个钱包
赔率异动581 小时内变动 10 个百分点以上
资金流向
下注最多的市场
按过去 24 小时大额下注的总金额排序。概率取自这个市场最近一笔大额下注或赔率异动时的价格,不一定是此刻的价格。
- 01 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ Yes95% 7 笔 $33.7 万
- 02 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ Yes76% 4 笔 $21.9 万
- 03 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ No63% 4 笔 $9.1 万
- 04 政治 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?↗ Yes81% 2 笔 $8.2 万
- 05 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?↗ No100% 1 笔 $7.7 万
- 06 政治 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ No94% 3 笔 $7 万
- 07 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?↗ Yes75% 2 笔 $6.3 万
- 08 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ Yes62% 4 笔 $6.2 万
异动日志
最新大额下注与赔率异动
题目和选项由 AI 译成中文,下方小字是英文原文;点题目可看这个市场的概率走势和全部记录。
默认不显示体育和电竞,以及结果基本已定(概率 97% 以上或 3% 以下)的赔率异动,可用上方开关打开。
- 大额下注 政治 US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?↗ 买入「No」 89% $1.2 万 0x8dc9…434f
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 62% $1 万 0x539d…1e69
- 赔率上升 加密货币 Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?↗ 「Up」 21% → 36%+14 24h $6.6万
- 大额下注 政治 Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 5?↗ 买入「Yes」 83% $2.3 万 0x44c1…ebc1
- 赔率上升 加密货币 Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?↗ 「Up」 20% → 30%+11 24h $6.4万
- 大额下注 政治 Will the loser of the Alaska Senate election concede by November 3?↗ 买入「No」 84% $1.1 万 0xc91c…8514
- 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ 买入「Yes」 76% $1.9 万 0xeb49…693e
- 大额下注 政治 Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?↗ 卖出「Yes」 10% $1.5 万 0x2342…dd81
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 卖出「No」 94% $1.9 万 0xeb49…693e
- 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ 买入「Yes」 76% $1.9 万 0xeb49…693e
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 卖出「No」 94% $1.9 万 0xeb49…693e
- 大额下注 其他 Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?↗ 买入「No」 100% $1.1 万 0xaac2…e8ce
- 大额下注 政治 Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 4?↗ 买入「Yes」 83% $2.2 万 0xb37a…f1b1
- 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House↗ 买入「No」 81% $4.4 万 0x58b3…653c
- 大额下注 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?↗ 买入「No」 100% $7.7 万 0x996a…e3cc
- 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ 买入「Yes」 78% $1.9 万 0x55b4…80ea
- 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ 买入「Yes」 77% $16.3 万 0x9ee4…697b
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 63% $1.4 万 0xd022…6461
- 大额下注 宏观经济 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?↗ 买入「No」 87% $1.5 万 0x92ea…3741
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $1 万 0x3cf8…843a
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 98% $2 万 0x4d22…df92
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 63% $2.5 万 0xd022…6461
- 大额下注 政治 Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?↗ 买入「No」 65% $1.4 万 0x5b63…11a4
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 62% $3.1 万 0xd022…6461
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 61% $2 万 0xd022…6461
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 61% $2.2 万 0xd022…6461
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 60% $1.1 万 0xd022…6461
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $1.6 万 0xe25e…8440
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 99% $1.5 万 0x4d22…df92
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 81% $7 万 0x8bd3…f69a
- 大额下注 政治 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?↗ 卖出「No」 100% $3.1 万 0xa30e…49d5
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $2 万 0xa30e…49d5
- 大额下注 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?↗ 买入「Yes」 75% $1.4 万 0xdf17…97d1
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 78% $1.8 万 0xcb4c…6d64
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 92% $1.4 万 0x0577…081f
- 大额下注 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?↗ 卖出「Yes」 71% $2.1 万 0x2d99…4ca3
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 卖出「Yes」 94% $1.4 万 0x24de…83cb
- 大额下注 政治 US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?↗ 买入「No」 100% $1.1 万 0xdf17…97d1
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 81% $1.2 万 0x5975…9fb2
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 75% $2 万 0x9e72…99c4
- 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House↗ 买入「No」 95% $2 万 0xa9f3…4bce
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「No」 95% $3.3 万 0xdc41…dd7e
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 75% $4.3 万 0x68b6…7cd7
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 77% $1.3 万 0xd7f5…c214
- 大额下注 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?↗ 卖出「Yes」 75% $1.5 万 0x2d99…4ca3
- 大额下注 政治 Trump out as President before 2027?↗ 卖出「No」 96% $1.1 万 0xef2f…8b9c
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $3.2 万 0xa7b3…246a
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $19.8 万 0x0e58…5749
- 大额下注 政治 Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?↗ 买入「Yes」 100% $1.1 万 0xad96…d498
- 大额下注 政治 US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?↗ 买入「No」 100% $2 万 0x2d99…4ca3
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 40% $2 万 0xe25b…0f1b
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 87% $2.9 万 0xecaa…77a9
- 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $4.8 万 0x0191…541d