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● 过去 24 小时 · 预测市场

预测市场赔率与大额下注

大额下注和赔率急变,往往比新闻更早反映市场对选举、利率和币价的预期。数据来自 Polymarket,题目附中文翻译;我们只记录发生了什么,不判断对错。预测市场入门

大额下注131单笔 $1 万起
下注金额$360万78 个钱包
赔率异动581 小时内变动 10 个百分点以上
最大一笔$19.8万Yes @ 95%

资金流向

下注最多的市场

按过去 24 小时大额下注的总金额排序。概率取自这个市场最近一笔大额下注或赔率异动时的价格,不一定是此刻的价格。

  1. 01 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ Yes95% 7 笔 $33.7 万
  2. 02 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ Yes76% 4 笔 $21.9 万
  3. 03 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ No63% 4 笔 $9.1 万
  4. 04 政治 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?↗ Yes81% 2 笔 $8.2 万
  5. 05 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?↗ No100% 1 笔 $7.7 万
  6. 06 政治 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ No94% 3 笔 $7 万
  7. 07 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?↗ Yes75% 2 笔 $6.3 万
  8. 08 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ Yes62% 4 笔 $6.2 万

异动日志

最新大额下注与赔率异动

题目和选项由 AI 译成中文,下方小字是英文原文;点题目可看这个市场的概率走势和全部记录。

默认不显示体育和电竞,以及结果基本已定(概率 97% 以上或 3% 以下)的赔率异动,可用上方开关打开。

  1. 大额下注 政治 US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?↗ 买入「No」 89% $1.2 万 0x8dc9…434f
  2. 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 62% $1 万 0x539d…1e69
  3. 赔率上升 加密货币 Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?↗ 「Up」 21% → 36%+14 24h $6.6万
  4. 大额下注 政治 Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 5?↗ 买入「Yes」 83% $2.3 万 0x44c1…ebc1
  5. 赔率上升 加密货币 Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?↗ 「Up」 20% → 30%+11 24h $6.4万
  6. 大额下注 政治 Will the loser of the Alaska Senate election concede by November 3?↗ 买入「No」 84% $1.1 万 0xc91c…8514
  7. 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ 买入「Yes」 76% $1.9 万 0xeb49…693e
  8. 大额下注 政治 Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?↗ 卖出「Yes」 10% $1.5 万 0x2342…dd81
  9. 大额下注 政治 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 卖出「No」 94% $1.9 万 0xeb49…693e
  10. 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ 买入「Yes」 76% $1.9 万 0xeb49…693e
  11. 大额下注 政治 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 卖出「No」 94% $1.9 万 0xeb49…693e
  12. 大额下注 其他 Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?↗ 买入「No」 100% $1.1 万 0xaac2…e8ce
  13. 大额下注 政治 Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 4?↗ 买入「Yes」 83% $2.2 万 0xb37a…f1b1
  14. 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House↗ 买入「No」 81% $4.4 万 0x58b3…653c
  15. 大额下注 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?↗ 买入「No」 100% $7.7 万 0x996a…e3cc
  16. 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ 买入「Yes」 78% $1.9 万 0x55b4…80ea
  17. 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House↗ 买入「Yes」 77% $16.3 万 0x9ee4…697b
  18. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 63% $1.4 万 0xd022…6461
  19. 大额下注 宏观经济 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?↗ 买入「No」 87% $1.5 万 0x92ea…3741
  20. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $1 万 0x3cf8…843a
  21. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 98% $2 万 0x4d22…df92
  22. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 63% $2.5 万 0xd022…6461
  23. 大额下注 政治 Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?↗ 买入「No」 65% $1.4 万 0x5b63…11a4
  24. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 62% $3.1 万 0xd022…6461
  25. 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 61% $2 万 0xd022…6461
  26. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 61% $2.2 万 0xd022…6461
  27. 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 60% $1.1 万 0xd022…6461
  28. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $1.6 万 0xe25e…8440
  29. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 99% $1.5 万 0x4d22…df92
  30. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 81% $7 万 0x8bd3…f69a
  31. 大额下注 政治 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?↗ 卖出「No」 100% $3.1 万 0xa30e…49d5
  32. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $2 万 0xa30e…49d5
  33. 大额下注 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?↗ 买入「Yes」 75% $1.4 万 0xdf17…97d1
  34. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 78% $1.8 万 0xcb4c…6d64
  35. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 92% $1.4 万 0x0577…081f
  36. 大额下注 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?↗ 卖出「Yes」 71% $2.1 万 0x2d99…4ca3
  37. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 卖出「Yes」 94% $1.4 万 0x24de…83cb
  38. 大额下注 政治 US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?↗ 买入「No」 100% $1.1 万 0xdf17…97d1
  39. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 81% $1.2 万 0x5975…9fb2
  40. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 75% $2 万 0x9e72…99c4
  41. 大额下注 政治 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House↗ 买入「No」 95% $2 万 0xa9f3…4bce
  42. 大额下注 政治 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「No」 95% $3.3 万 0xdc41…dd7e
  43. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 75% $4.3 万 0x68b6…7cd7
  44. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 77% $1.3 万 0xd7f5…c214
  45. 大额下注 政治 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?↗ 卖出「Yes」 75% $1.5 万 0x2d99…4ca3
  46. 大额下注 政治 Trump out as President before 2027?↗ 卖出「No」 96% $1.1 万 0xef2f…8b9c
  47. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $3.2 万 0xa7b3…246a
  48. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $19.8 万 0x0e58…5749
  49. 大额下注 政治 Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?↗ 买入「Yes」 100% $1.1 万 0xad96…d498
  50. 大额下注 政治 US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?↗ 买入「No」 100% $2 万 0x2d99…4ca3
  51. 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?↗ 买入「No」 40% $2 万 0xe25b…0f1b
  52. 大额下注 政治 Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?↗ 买入「Yes」 87% $2.9 万 0xecaa…77a9
  53. 大额下注 政治 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?↗ 买入「Yes」 95% $4.8 万 0x0191…541d

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